The stalker and his 5% chance to drop the one thing i actually want.

[Kaiga]

This is why more intelligently designed games have bad luck mitigation that slightly increases the drop threshold after X number (usually hundreds) of failed runs, to the point that if you're severely unlucky, your effort will result in a mathematical advantage. 

Think of it like gambler's fallacy actualized.

[taiiat]

1 hour ago, kapn655321 said:

Maybe the game should acknowledge that stalker isn't very fun to play. [...]
Stalker can be boring. Casinos are designed to never be boring; they ruthlessly prey on people's mental blindspots for compulsion and excitement.. but since money is not at stake here, that would be overall what we'd hope to see from the game. In many rights we do.. as you can tell from people both being, "angery," and hopelessly engaged with content at the same time. 

Were he to be an objectively fun fight, threads like this one would be less common..

 

We've got lots of gimmicks to work with in a few directions, and that's just about enough to keep us going. You and I aren't so worked up about drops, and not so put off by repetitive combat, and that's why we're still here.

i'm just not excited about the game giving up on making stuff engaging like that. idunno.

 

i'm still here, mostly, kinda, sure. i login sometimes and do some stuff. but since content basically stopped in 2015, i have been doing a lot of waiting. it didn't phase me for ~4.5 years, i was still enjoying the core Gameplay. but eventually it wore out, party due to anti-meta nerfing that always hits the wrong things while missing the targets (nerfing stuff that i like that often isn't even popular while leaving stuff Digital Extremes complains about basically untouched) and stuff like that, but party just from eventually getting bored of the same pointless Enemies that in the scope of the pace of the game generally don't do anything interesting.
if i had more reason to play vs the Venus Landscape Enemies i might shore up more interest, but the stuff there is to do on that Landscape is pretty dull. i play Thermia from time to time just because but it gets boring in an hour or two and then i don't go back for a few months. and the rest of the game, i play some stuff a bit but i'm definitely looking for more than pointless Enemies and Resources/Gear i have no reason to have to use anyways.

1 hour ago, (PS4)robotwars7 said:

and because I'm a bad person I send him screenshots of games where I get it and he isn't in the squad.

isn't that what friends are for? *grin*

[VanFanel1980mx]

3 hours ago, nicolajtheking2 said:

So i've had 1000+ encounters with the stalker and not even ONCE did he drop an item wich has supposedly 5% chance to drop (smoking body ephemera) i'm beginning to  think it's been removed from his drop table since statistically i should have gotten the drop by now.

This confuses and irritates me to no end since it's the only ephemera that i would actually have a chance to get since i don't do liches or orbs.

I reall think DE should increase the drop chance from (supposedly) 5% to 15-20%

if only it was tradeable I would give you one for free, I think I have three not counting the one I made for myself, now try to collect all 10 Zanuka pigments, the guy appeared at the end of a fissure mission just as I was choosing my reward.

[(PSN)grayhyh]

I got smoking ephemera on my lost 1k hours ingame ps4 acc... twice

[(PSN)grayhyh]

People will bash me for saying this but i kinda dont like warframe rng and drop tables...like as far as rng goes i only accept stuff that actually worth getting to deserve 5% or less chance and warframe clearly have too many of these low numbers regardless if so called item is worth getting,also they cram too much useless garbage into some bosses/drop cycle such as common mods that are easy to get or dumb stuff like endo,

Why is endo a reward in almost or even every endless game mode possible? Getting endo in ESO makes me cringe everytime and getting like heat mod or S#&$ like heavy impact and the 100th dread bp from stalker makes me give up and let him kill me lol 😂

[(NSW)Greybones]

4 hours ago, kapn655321 said:

Some drop tables should have an adaptive RNG, that gives very minor (0.5%) additive increases to the chance of things you haven't gotten. On getting a drop, all cumulative bonus is removed from that drop, resetting it's base value to normal. The item you have gotten last will then take whatever negative is necessary to rebalance the pool to 100% total chances.

This way we will never have more than >200 runs at the same thing, and as we do, we are given hope that, "the next time will be better," rather than a feeling that we're stuck in a cosmic pointless joke played on us by a unfeeling time vampire.

What? I never knew about this 😯 How’d you find this out? I’d love to see how it works in its entirety, in particular because I posted a topic with a very similar idea earlier 😅

Edited April 16, 2020 by (NSW)Greybones

[kapn655321]

1 hour ago, (NSW)Greybones said:

What? I never knew about this 😯 How’d you find this out? I’d love to see how it works in its entirety, in particular because I posted a topic with a very similar idea earlier 😅

No no, the game doesn't do this.. it's something I feel that it should do in some cases.

[(NSW)Greybones]

Just now, kapn655321 said:

No no, the game doesn't do this.. it's something I feel that it should do in some cases.

Oh sorry, my mistake. I misinterpreted the “Should” 😅 and it influenced the rest of my interpretation of the post. I see now what you actually meant 👍

[OneYenShort]

6 hours ago, kapn655321 said:

There's probably something I'm overlooking here.. but we have entirely too many drop tables where.. we disengage or begin to seethe with resentment toward the game, rather than feel like we're playing slots.

It might be realization of perspective you are missing?

Most gamers I've noticed want "balanced and fair play." Sounds really nice, right?  But that is impossible when things are left to RNG as RNG is inherently not fair.  The only work around towards fairness I've been able to come up with a token reward system that gets enabled at some point that will let you purchase what you want.

Like how there are mods on PoE I still don't have because of RNG even though i'm utterly maxed out on favor. You'd think I could just buy them by now right?  Nope.  But that would make it more fair that you could by that point at the very end.

[PrivateRiem]

Came back from a 2 year break, killed the stalker by accident and got it on my first try, before I even knew what ephemeras were. Bad luck.

[kapn655321]

1 minute ago, OneYenShort said:

It might be realization of perspective you are missing?

Most gamers I've noticed want "balanced and fair play." Sounds really nice, right?  But that is impossible when things are left to RNG as RNG is inherently not fair.  The only work around towards fairness I've been able to come up with a token reward system that gets enabled at some point that will let you purchase what you want.

Like how there are mods on PoE I still don't have because of RNG even though i'm utterly maxed out on favor. You'd think I could just buy them by now right?  Nope.  But that would make it more fair that you could by that point at the very end.

The token system is fine in many cases, and I agree there. Some RNG is useful also to stretch content.. which is better for the devs than the players, but can still be fine by us So Long As it doesn't leave us feeling hopeless and drained at the prospect of more runs. Say, in the case of you running bounties.. if you were to actually get closer to a drop each time, you may be inclined to try, where as you likely will just trade for it otherwise. Not sure which would be better for longer term player enjoyment.. since tokens will likely give a lower set number of runs per player, else they'll feel like a rip-off.. where as the RNG just might trick us into pushing further and more often until we've gotten the drops. Would be interesting to see if DE has done research for projections on both.

[kapn655321]

10 minutes ago, (NSW)Greybones said:

Oh sorry, my mistake. I misinterpreted the “Should” 😅 and it influenced the rest of my interpretation of the post. I see now what you actually meant 👍

Perhaps like you, this is a suggestion I've mentioned before in the forums. ...in fact, I worry that I've said it so much I'm going to get flagged for spamming in some capacity. Each time a scenario like this comes up, where a player is getting demoralized from a drop table, I can't help but think that requires some innovation.

[(NSW)Greybones]

Just now, kapn655321 said:

Perhaps like you, this is a suggestion I've mentioned before in the forums. ...in fact, I worry that I've said it so much I'm going to get flagged for spamming in some capacity. Each time a scenario like this comes up, where a player is getting demoralized from a drop table, I can't help but think that requires some innovation.

I feel you 😕 These scenarios where people don’t hate a game but feel like the game hates them sadden me, ‘cause I know where they’re coming from. I’d love to see innovation to the RNG system as well, it’d be a devilishly fun and worthy puzzle to solve at the moment (considering how intertwined with everything RNG is in Warframe)

[Hypernaut1]

Im surprised Stalker has been able to keep his RNG after all of these years. He's really from an era when the game wasnt afraid to make something actually hard and very rare to get. 

[Yamazuki]

I got the ephemera 5 times so far, and only just recently got Hate 2 days ago after multiple years, never got it on my original account either.

At this point he should just drop tokens that can be traded for the stuff he drops with varying costs, and extra stuff for when you have everything.

[(PSN)crashteddy03]

7 hours ago, nicolajtheking2 said:

i'm beginning to  think it's been removed from his drop table since statistically i should have gotten the drop by now.

Definitely still there, because I got the BP two days ago... almost immediately after I had built it. At times RNG just sucks. If you keep doing the Phorid Assassination invasion missions ,Stalker will chase you no end. That's about the only boss fight I do these days (aside from the occasional sortie) and he's constantly showing up.

 

[(PSN)crashteddy03]

7 hours ago, kapn655321 said:

Some drop tables should have an adaptive RNG, that gives very minor (0.5%) additive increases to the chance of things you haven't gotten. On getting a drop, all cumulative bonus is removed from that drop, resetting it's base value to normal. The item you have gotten last will then take whatever negative is necessary to rebalance the pool to 100% total chances.

This has to be one of the best ideas I've seen for Warframe for a long time.

I've tried farming some of the rare mods like Condition Overload with zero success. I actually had Quick Thinking drop the other day for the first time (1000+ hours in) and was like "WTH is this? How have I not seen this before?" Only do discover it's like a 0.03% drop chance.

[0_The_F00l]

*looks at the three copies of smoking body ephemera in inventory *

 

 

Yeah. 

[Butterfly85]

I haven't actively gone after the ephemera, so typically I got back to back drops the other week. Go figure 🤷‍♀️

[nicolajtheking2]

The funny thing is that Condition overload keeps dropping for me constantly, even though i don't ever use it *looks in inventory* i have about 30 just from last week alone (even though i always just melt them down for endo until i only have 1)

But i can't get the one thing i actually want, i'm really beginning to feel like the game just hates me...

Edited April 16, 2020 by nicolajtheking2

[(PSN)crashteddy03]

31 minutes ago, nicolajtheking2 said:

The funny thing is that Condition overload keeps dropping for me constantly, even though i don't ever use it *looks in inventory* i have about 30 just from last week alone (even though i always just melt them down for endo until i only have 1)

I'll trade you for the Ephemera BP... if only that were possible.

31 minutes ago, nicolajtheking2 said:

But i can't get the one thing i actually want, i'm really beginning to feel like the game just hates me...

I can understand. There are days when RNGesus totally seems to hate me too.

[nicolajtheking2]

3 minutes ago, (PS4)crashteddy03 said:

I'll trade you for the Ephemera BP... if only that were possible.

I can understand. There are days when RNGesus totally seems to hate me too.

i just got my first non-BP drop from stalker in 2 years and it's molten impact... i'm beginning to lose hope at this point.

[(PSN)ErydisTheLucario]

11 hours ago, nicolajtheking2 said:

So i've had 1000+ encounters with the stalker and not even ONCE did he drop an item wich has supposedly 5% chance to drop (smoking body ephemera) i'm beginning to  think it's been removed from his drop table since statistically i should have gotten the drop by now.

This confuses and irritates me to no end since it's the only ephemera that i would actually have a chance to get since i don't do liches or orbs.

I reall think DE should increase the drop chance from (supposedly) 5% to 15-20%

Bruh, I feel your pain, although I have tried for a good 2 years or so to get hate to drop. Nothing...I got two of those smoking body epehemeras and have not seen one hate...I Hate this his drop rates lol.

[nicolajtheking2]

5 hours ago, (PS4)ErydisTheLucario said:

Bruh, I feel your pain, although I have tried for a good 2 years or so to get hate to drop. Nothing...I got two of those smoking body epehemeras and have not seen one hate...I Hate this his drop rates lol.

Add the fact that he is a total push-over and you got yourself a real depressing farm...

[(PSN)gamerpie12]

In know your pain for the most part.  4 years playing and I still don't have the despair.  It is one of a whopping 12 weapons missing in my codex (most of the rest are kuva weapons and a couple oddballs).