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[DE]Rebecca

Riven Trading & Toolbuilders: Phase 1

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Our first batch of live data is here! Read on, Riven masters!

You may recall:

Today I want to update you all on this part: 'When the data is set up we will post links and explain the update cadence / data, then toolmakers can either start or continue to provide Riven trade analysis for players.'

Right to the goods:

DATA LINKS:

PC: Updated weekly based on the prior week's trades: http://n9e5v4d8.ssl.hwcdn.net/repos/weeklyRivensPC.json
PS4: Updated weekly based on the prior week's trades: http://n9e5v4d8.ssl.hwcdn.net/repos/weeklyRivensPS4.json
XB1: Updated weekly based on the prior week's trades: http://n9e5v4d8.ssl.hwcdn.net/repos/weeklyRivensXB1.json
SWITCH: Updated weekly based on the prior week's trades: http://n9e5v4d8.ssl.hwcdn.net/repos/weeklyRivensSWI.json

SIMPLE EXPLANATION:
There are 8 fields to start things off in Phase 1:

itemType:  What type of Riven is it?
compatibility: Which Weapon is the Riven for?
rerolled: Has it been rolled or unrolled (true/false)?
avg: Average value of trades with this Riven Type.
stddev: The average variation in the prices that the Riven trades for.
min: Lowest amount of Platinum per trade of this Riven Type.
max: Highest amount of Platinum per trade of this Riven Type.
pop: Popularity of this Riven Type being traded within all traded Rivens. Popularity of this Riven Type being traded in relation to the most popular Riven Type in the list. Effective May 12 Data.

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW:

This is actual trade data, not trade-chat data, released with the purposes to help toolbuilders and players learn more about market value of their Riven Mods. It is planned to auto-repopulate at 00:00 UTC Monday (the first week might require manual push as we get set up here). Of course, value is always open to interpretation. We are experimenting with this whole idea in Phase 1 - we don't really know what to expect, as is often the case. While it doesn't matter what we expect, what matters is why we are doing this: to remove any foul play in the Market. After a couple of weeks of feedback and results, we plan on bringing a bit more data, so please be constructive in replies.

All of this data is made up of Riven + Platinum trades. We do not include '1 Platinum' trades in our averages, etc, because we consider these to be between friends and not reflective of Market reality (although, friends, why not choose Ammo Drum)?

Riven Trading is indeed an optional part of the Warframe experience, we hope that those who participate in it find this helpful! Thank you to all who helped push this idea along, you know who you are <3!
 

 

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I really like the foundation of this log. Hopefully it carries over for other items as it would be cool to track real trade data instead of speculating based on advertisements.

Edited by Voltage
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I wonder what actual impact this will have in the coming few weeks. Nonetheless thanks for setting this up guys!

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Nice!
Still lacks a bit in the stats department (as in which combinations were higher rated), but it's a good start!

I think next step would be maybe to have a ranking of which stats are valued the most?

 

I mean, for example the unrolled Arca plasmor ones

Quote
itemType "Shotgun Riven Mod"
compatibility "ARCA PLASMOR"
rerolled false
avg 217.7
stddev 169.76530858806
min 40
max 1200
pop 0.2411

That's a min of 40 plat and a max of 1200 with a 217 Average and a deviation that's almost as high as the average...
Sure it's a indicator, and maybe with this, prices will stabilize a bit more, but some other indicators would probably help less experienced traders.
 

Edited by ReaverKane
idea
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I like this quite a bit. Although I have one comment (not specifically for DE, but just a general comment.)

To the person who coughed up 16,500 plat for an Artax riven... damn. Just... damn. You do realize you just spent $1,100 USD for that, right? (Assuming 75 plat ~= $5 USD)

EDIT: I looked through that list again... I'm sorry, but who the f**k in their right mind would pay 60,000 plat for a Vectis riven?!?

Edited by Soulless_Spartan
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4 minutes ago, ReaverKane said:

Nice!
Still lacks a bit in the stats department (as in which combinations were higher rated), but it's a good start!

I think next step would be maybe to have a ranking of which stats are valued the most?
 

Yup! Phase 2 will include some amount of stat details / level of Mod fusion which will be appended to the data.

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So there is no price for stat combination statistics? So far so useless... Hope I am just misunderstanding.

Edited by Mr.SpookSpook
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Just now, [DE]Rebecca said:

Yup! Phase 2 will include some amount of stat details / level of Mod fusion which will be appended to the data.

Ah nice! Looking forward to that!

I guess is time to go back to coding some stuff ^_^

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Cool. Thanks.

Hopefully, this will help Semlar/others build even better and more accurate tools.

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4 minutes ago, [DE]Rebecca said:

Yup! Phase 2 will include some amount of stat details / level of Mod fusion which will be appended to the data.

When the final phase is complete, will the outcome be a full log of trades involving Riven Mods? Trading education outside the game is a start, but in-game resources would be great too.

Edited by Voltage

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Wow, that's pretty cool!

Does the "pop" field represent the percentage of total riven trades?  Just guessing since it adds up to about 100.

I'd recommend including the median (50th percentile) in addition to the mean.  I suspect those are not the same for this kind of data; extremely high outliers probably push the mean a bit higher.

To give a clearer idea of the the distribution I'd also like to see Skew and Kurtosis in addition to Standard Deviation, but I suspect those might confuse people more than anything else.

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22 minutes ago, [DE]Rebecca said:

PC: Updated weekly based on the prior week's trades: http://n9e5v4d8.ssl.hwcdn.net/repos/weeklyRivensPC.json
PS4: Updated weekly based on the prior week's trades: http://n9e5v4d8.ssl.hwcdn.net/repos/weeklyRivensPS4.json
XB1: Updated weekly based on the prior week's trades: http://n9e5v4d8.ssl.hwcdn.net/repos/weeklyRivensXB1.json
SWITCH: Updated weekly based on the prior week's trades: http://n9e5v4d8.ssl.hwcdn.net/repos/weeklyRivensSWI.json

Why http://n9e5v4d8.ssl.hwcdn.net instead of warframe.com

works the same and looks a bit more warframey.

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Just now, Voltage said:

When the final phase is complete, will the outcome be a full log of trades involving Riven Mods?

While that would be nice, it's probably too big of a data dump for them to give, also idk if i'd want to work with that either ^_^

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This is magical, this will be really useful & make setting unreasonable prices on rivens harder for those newer or even experienced players.

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Nice! Its a start to getting much needed statistical data. Will there be distributions of the frequency of trade + price point over time at some point? Will we be getting variances/standard dev. with the various stats that a riven for a specific weapon can roll? (Since its phase 1, it makes sense that this might be coming in the future)

Edit: Some of my questions have been answered already

Edited by SP3CT3R7
updating to provide answers

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26 minutes ago, [DE]Rebecca said:

pop: Popularity of this Riven Type being traded within all traded Rivens

How's the popularity calculated and expressed? Kinda don't understand. Is it %?

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amazing data so far but not incredibly useful outside of getting veiled prices and maybe unrolled prices, stats of the mods and such will be important.

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