Why people think player numbers are dropping off. Are they? And when did it happen? (Where DE really screwed up)

[PollexMessier]

Seen this discussion come up a lot and I wanna give my take on it. I know posts like this have been getting struck down so, hopefully, the mods take pity on this one cus I think this is important and is actually a good and relevant point.

So why do people think it's happening? The short answer is, because it is. (sort of)
In 2019 the minimum player count went from 80-70k players daily, to 70-50k. That's a 15-25% drop off. It only recovered briefly in 2020-2021 during the covid lockdown while everyone was trapped in their homes and had nothing better to do, and even then it didn't hit the same numbers it did prior. But that drop off in 2019 was over 4 years ago and the minimum has been relatively stable since then, not counting the predictable boost from the lockdown. So what about peaks? There's a lot more obvious of a decline just glancing at the chart. The peaks hit the highest they've ever been in august 2020 (around Steel path), and again in July 2021 (around Sisters of Parvos). Then after that, for the last 2 years, peaks haven't since breached what they used to hit consistently as far back as the Plains of Eidolan release. And have been noticeably going down, aside from the stand out cases that were TNW and Duviri. Though TNW dramatically under preformed compared to the previous two peaks and we'll talk about that.

So what happened? Well what happened in 2019 is pretty obvious if you look at when the dropoff started to happen. There were a lot of solid updates that year, but 3 stand out as pretty controversial. Nightwave, Old Blood, and Empyrian. If you pay attention to release dates tho Old Blood happened in the middle of the drop off, and Emperian on the tail end of it. So, TLDR, this was mostly Nightwave's fault. Turns out people don't like fomo and time gates, who would have guessed? DE has shockingly not figured this out yet despite how blatantly huge of a disaster that decision was for the game. Old Blood may have contributed with it's horrendous multi layered rng BS. But TBH, it wasn't that bad, and DE fixed it's problems rather quickly (for them). And despite how hard Emperian bombed, it actually didn't hit the player count all that hard, at worst it just solidified the disdain of the people that had dropped off from the previous two. Nightwave is certainly much less bad than it used to be, and getting better every... season? But the things that make it problematic are baked into the very core of it, and DE keeps proving they haven't learned from what really made that one a disaster.

So Nightwave is what happened in 2019 that plummeted the player floor, and potentially a couple controversial updates solidified the opinions of the players that dropped out. But what happened to the player ceiling after 2021 that it hasn't recovered from? I'm not as certain on this one but it seems like it might have been Prime resurgence. Particularly DE's horrendously predatory handling of regal aya. I can't quite find anything else between Sisters of Parvos and The New War that could have caused so much damage that TNW, which should've been the biggest update of the last half decade, got a 30% lower turn out than SoP. It makes some sense, Regal aya revealed an underlying predatory and anti-consumer nature of the company that wasn't apparent, or didn't exist, before. The thing about it tho is that I'm just not sure enough people would have actually noticed or cared to cause TNW to under preform that hard. Pretty much only people paying attention to the forums, or both wanting to buy from resurgence and previously looked at buying unvaults would have noticed enough to care. The average ftp non-forum-goer would have completely glossed over that one. Maybe I'm just severely underestimating how many players actually spend time on the forums and/or consider spending real money on prime vaults. If anyone can think of a more likely reason for that drop I'd love to hear it. I don't personally think TNW's steep requirements were enough of a reason to kill interest in it that hard. But I guess it can't be ruled out.

Peaks have continued to decline dramatically since then. I'd say Angels of the Zariman was a solid update but it barely even shows up on the map, I think this could largely be because of the eximus overhaul it came with. But still it feels like player numbers were well below what would be expected for an update like that. Then Veil breaker happened which, well that one speaks for itself I think. A huge plateau flowed it until we get another peak with Duviri. But despite it being one of the best updates the game's ever gotten in my opinion (even despite Circuit's weekly bs), It still hit lower than TNW. It was also Preceded by the Aoe nerf tho which certainly didn't go over well with a large chunk of players. I'd say multiple small factors all tangled together are likely at play with the apparent decline in max player numbers over time. Compared to the much more obvious cause of 2019's drop of minimum players.

Between circuit's weekly fomo trash tarnishing Duviri, the absolute disaster that was the Hierloom incident, and the ticking time bomb that is the upcoming addition to arcon shards; I have a feeling whispers in the wall is going to continue the trend of declining peaks. Still, the floor hasn't dropped since 2019. So DE hasn't pissed people off enough for another mass exodus of their most loyal players since then... that we've seen. Not enough time's passed yet to see any downward trend heirloom might have kicked off, or lack their of. I suspect it won't be pretty tho if I'm right about how hard regal aya hit the player base.

EDIT: After having a day to think on it I noticed a pretty egregious issue with my logic. I'm sure a lot of people have already called me out on this cus it's pretty obvious and I even drew attention to it. I pointed out the floor raised during lockdown but completely ignored how that would've effected the peaks.
The two all-time high peaks were also during lockdown. It did confuse the hell out of me that steel path and sisters of parvos of all updates were these massive peaks. and I should've thought about it a lot more. These were probably huge amounts of players that wouldn't have tried the game when they did if not for the lockdown, and quickly decided it wasn't for them. Those two peaks are also probably a contributing factor to drops in player numbers after that. Because many of those players probably would've tried the game some time later, and they would've been more spread out. But instead a large amount of players that tried the game and decided it wasn't for them all popped up at once in these two big spikes. Which would've substantially dropped the number of new players filtering into the game for a while. A lot of people also probably burned themselves out on the game duing lockdown.
TNW peak was likely 30% lower than SoP because the lockdown ended and is only marginally smaller than it would have been under normal circumstance.
Everything Prior to that tho I still keep my stance on.

Edited December 2, 2023 by PollexMessier

[Voltage]

This is an interesting take for sure, but to me, I think it's much simpler than that. The game stays relevant and retains players as their account ages by bringing them back for new updates. Between updates, the game doesn't have that much to do. As much as Warframe gets praised for experimentation, it's also strayed quite far away from what many players signed up for and enjoyed. While the removal of Trials in early 2018 didn't affect overall players much, I think this was writing on the wall for who the game is catered towards and what you should expect if you're sticking around a long time. The solution now for this "low between major updates" is scheduled server reset tasks. Players who are honestly not in the mood for that type of gameplay will simply skip, and the system then just burns players out (slowly or quickly) for participating. 

AoE is a major portion of Warframe's gameplay, and a long time ago, DE was quite bent on trying to reel this in to a degree. Since 2019, while DE has been verbal about watching AoE, they've functionally let it go off the rails and won't improve how dominant both AoE and Specter-like gameplay have become. Warframe's never been a hard game, but at this point, the only practical power increase we can farm that changes how we play is automation. Raw damage numbers are effectively meaningless unless you're into the nitty gritty of build crafting, collectionism, and deep dives into formulas for skill/damage outputs.

Warframe has never really been declining, but it's shifted its playerbase multiple times over the years. If you're a very old player, you can identify "peak Warframe" relevant to how you enjoy the game. For some, that may be The Second Dream. For some that's Plains of Eidolon. For some that is Shrine of the Eidolon, and for some, it could be The New War or Operation: Scarlet Spear. The generational shift in what Warframe is meant to "accomplish" for the player is quite apparent, and we can see this through things like Regal Aya, Heirlooms, Archon Shards, Nightwave, and Incarnon Adapters.

What got me personally hooked on this game was how rewarding the grind felt and how all these content islands eventually tied to your arsenal progression. That's still what keeps the game fun for me now. I will be brutally honest though: I like core Warframe, but the last few years have just been enjoying the destination and not the journey. Conjunction Survival with Voruna had me enjoying the actual farm. Things like Duviri Arcane farms, the Orowyrm bounty, Tier 10 Circuit, or Archon weeklies aren't that entertaining, I just do them so I can enjoy the reward benefit.

Edited December 2, 2023 by Voltage

[MutoManiac]

Regarding player count, sure there are peaks, but steam charts show it's been about the same for years now? 

[AntifreezeUnder0]

Well nightwave could be part of it, but essentialy its just free stuff for playing game.

Biggest part was many nerfs which killed what people liked and been using for years, for better or for worse we see now.

Then the covid happened, which postponed some of the hyped updates... And thats its the hype was on teasin with the updates not updates themselves.

Like the new war was great quest , nothing hard or too advanced , simple game mechanics and ability to read was main thing, with exceptions that certain hotfixes did brake some parts of quest. 

After that the quality of updates dropped. Like duviri was so hyped and the just lackluster quest with no real story filling to end up on point we were at the end of TNW.

Players want freedom of choice, to use what they have , when they wish and how they wish. Circuit take that away in the name of challenge, which highlights why certain picks were popular and why certain picks or not viable in most cituations.

Reworks on frames and new frame have same generic things going on, less CC more random crit boost, dmg boost, aoe status spread, but remember aoe is bad... And essentialy same most frames are copy paste mods  with frame being variable, arcanes mostly same, and helminth ability barely varies.

Overall quality of updates are dropping, challenges are made way too easier, and the loop continiues. 

Where people want challenge, then things get made easier and it divides:

a) make things even more easier without drawbacks

b) we want challenge.

 

Then there is crossplay- Where if you happen to have console host you get noticable lowered enemy spawn resulting in way less loot ... or dragged out missions.Compared to have pc host.

And if you disable crossplay then the matchmaking takes longer.

Thing is if you played warframe for long time and have everything unlocked, completed there not much you can do, since things one would like to farm a lot got weekly limitation.

If you are newer player you atleast get tons of stuff to do, but with upcoming changes to make things easier /skippable, you realy can rush trhough game way too quick and end up on point whats the point of many things, if those dont bring anything of value except mastery fodder.

[(PSN)haphazardlynamed]

1 minute ago, MutoManiac said:

...about the same for years now? 

 

Stagnation isn't a good thing. Games need to keep growing to stay competitive.

[Venus-Venera]

vor 30 Minuten schrieb PollexMessier:

Seen this discussion come up a lot and I wanna give my take on it. I know posts like this have been getting struck down so, hopefully, the mods take pity on this one cus I think this is important and is actually a good and relevant point.

One thing to clarify. I noticed while digging through dates corresponding to peaks and valleys in game activity, that the steam charts are likely a month off from what they should be. Every major peak seems to be marked a month before a major update actually happens, which makes absolutely no sense unless you assume a time skew. So my data's been adjusted account for that.

So why do people think it's happening? The short answer is, because it is.
In 2019 the minimum player count went from 80-70k players daily, to 70-50k. That's a 15-25% drop off. It only recovered briefly in 2020-2021 during the covid lockdown while everyone was trapped in their homes and had nothing better to do, and even then it didn't hit the same numbers it did prior. But that drop off in 2019 was over 4 years ago and the minimum has been relatively stable since then, not counting the predictable boost from the lockdown. So what about peaks? There's a lot more obvious of a decline just glancing at the chart. The peaks hit the highest they've ever been in august 2020 (around Steel path), and again in July 2021 (around Sisters of Parvos). Then after that, for the last 2 years, peaks haven't since breached what they used to hit consistently as far back as the Plains of Eidolan release. And have been noticeably going down, aside from the stand out cases that were TNW and Duviri. Though TNW dramatically under preformed compared to the previous two peaks and we'll talk about that.

So what happened? Well what happened in 2019 is pretty obvious if you look at when the dropoff started to happen. There were a lot of solid updates that year, but 3 stand out as pretty controversial. Nightwave, Old Blood, and Empyrian. If you pay attention to release dates tho Old Blood happened in the middle of the drop off, and Emperian on the tail end of it. So, TLDR, this was mostly Nightwave's fault. Turns out people don't like fomo and time gates, who would have guessed? DE has shockingly not figured this out yet despite how blatantly huge of a disaster that decision was for the game. Old Blood may have contributed with it's horrendous multi layered rng BS. But TBH, it wasn't that bad, and DE fixed it's problems rather quickly (for them). And despite how hard Emperian bombed, it actually didn't hit the player count all that hard, at worst it just solidified the disdain of the people that had dropped off from the previous two. Nightwave is certainly much less bad than it used to be, and getting better every... season? But the things that make it problematic are baked into the very core of it, and DE keeps proving they haven't learned from what really made that one a disaster.

So Nightwave is what happened in 2019 that plummeted the player floor, and potentially a couple controversial updates solidified the opinions of the players that dropped out. But what happened to the player ceiling after 2021 that it hasn't recovered from? I'm not as certain on this one but it seems like it might have been Prime resurgence. Particularly DE's horrendously predatory handling of regal aya. I can't quite find anything else between Sisters of Parvos and The New War that could have caused so much damage that TNW, which should've been the biggest update of the last half decade, got a 30% lower turn out than SoP. It makes some sense, Regal aya revealed an underlying predatory and anti-consumer nature of the company that wasn't apparent, or didn't exist, before. The thing about it tho is that I'm just not sure enough people would have actually noticed or cared to cause TNW to under preform that hard. Pretty much only people paying attention to the forums, or both wanting to buy from resurgence and previously looked at buying unvaults would have noticed enough to care. The average ftp non-forum-goer would have completely glossed over that one. Maybe I'm just severely underestimating how many players actually spend time on the forums and/or consider spending real money on prime vaults. If anyone can think of a more likely reason for that drop I'd love to hear it. I don't personally think TNW's steep requirements were enough of a reason to kill interest in it that hard. But I guess it can't be ruled out.

Peaks have continued to decline dramatically since then. I'd say Angels of the Zariman was a solid update but it barely even shows up on the map, I think this could largely be because of the eximus overhaul it came with. But still it feels like player numbers were well below what would be expected for an update like that. Then Veil breaker happened which, well that one speaks for itself I think. A huge plateau flowed it until we get another peak with Duviri. But despite it being one of the best updates the game's ever gotten in my opinion (even despite Circuit's weekly bs), It still hit lower than TNW. It was also Preceded by the Aoe nerf tho which certainly didn't go over well with a large chunk of players. I'd say multiple small factors all tangled together are likely at play with the apparent decline in max player numbers over time. Compared to the much more obvious cause of 2019's drop of minimum players.

Between circuit's weekly fomo trash tarnishing Duviri, the absolute disaster that was the Hierloom incident, and the ticking time bomb that is the upcoming addition to arcon shards; I have a feeling whispers in the wall is going to continue the trend of declining peaks. Still, the floor hasn't dropped since 2019. So DE hasn't pissed people off enough for another mass exodus of their most loyal players since then... that we've seen. Not enough time's passed yet to see any downward trend heirloom might have kicked off, or lack their of. I suspect it won't be pretty tho if I'm right about how hard regal aya hit the player base.

There are no constant players online variables here.
New content is released and then more players log in. and not everyone likes new updates. Which is the case for me with these slow combat trash gameplay for grandmas.
And in this game you can take a long break (a few years even) and still not lose anything.

That's why these fluctuations also exist. Of course there are other important reasons too.
Because your post also mentions many important points.

[L3512]

1 hour ago, PollexMessier said:

One thing to clarify. I noticed while digging through dates corresponding to peaks and valleys in game activity, that the steam charts are likely a month off from what they should be. Every major peak seems to be marked a month before a major update actually happens, which makes absolutely no sense unless you assume a time skew. So my data's been adjusted account for that.

Not sure why you seem to think this as info is literally dated.

https://steamdb.info/app/230410/charts/?__cf_chl_rt_tk=.oqD2W0NgVsWJ2D4Loo2JPU7lMSXJqlLsYZ1Z8q_5K4-1685159191-0-gaNycGzNC_s

 

28 minutes ago, (PSN)haphazardlynamed said:

 

Stagnation isn't a good thing. Games need to keep growing to stay competitive.

Yay and nay, we simply do not have the data to make guess. Money is what matters at the end of the day and a stagnate player count does not necessarily mean stagnate financials.

Edited December 2, 2023 by L3512

[RichardKam]

Basic statistic 101: correlation does not imply causation.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Spurious_correlations_-_spelling_bee_spiders.svg

[Kaiga]

The steamcharts numbers show that (again, on steam) the player averages are middling at best. Then again, the game is cross platform, so you'll have to average in the data from all the other platforms which i don't think we have, and warframe china, if you're really being completionist.

There hasn't been many large gains or losses, largely due to the lack of replayable or directly competitive content that would keep people engaged post completion. Everything in this game is either one and done or substantially completable without a need for the meta to evolve beyond adapting to content drops.



 

Edited December 2, 2023 by Kaiga

[(PSN)slightconfuzzled]

I don't disagree with anything said, but there are also some other aspects that perpetuate similar claims. (counter claims too, mind you)

1. Most people generally, and broadly, aren't good with numbers, stats, and context. Oh and just, valuing, and appreciating being objective, and neutral. Like at this point there are decades of studies, research, papers, across multiple scientific fields, as well as peoples lived experiences, that people can be a bit funny around certain ideas and concepts, and to relative and complicated degrees as well. Like even I am oversimplifying and being extremely broad with what I am saying. Since there are a lot of variables and factors involved, like even how our brain deals with small numbers, and larger numbers and points where those meet. Like if you ask people whether they want 1 of something they want, or 3, many people will obviously take 3. Its more... but in some situations, in more natural or rushed situations, with pressure, people can't really distinguish between say 13 bananas and 15. Bit of a preamble, but the point I am trying to get to, is a lot of people don't actually really care about numbers in an honest way, like say a scientist who is genuinely curious about the nature of something and the truth of it, many people are more emotional and ego driven, who view things more in terms of sports teams, or tribes, and being right as the goal and objective. So... a little bit of deception, dishonesty, discrimination, and white lies, and exaggeration is okay... if it means, your team, the good guys, wins... Sometimes its not even a conscious deliberate act either, its just subconscious and autopilot type behaviour, because in some situations that sort of thing is actually beneficial... To be clear this applies to positive and neutral, and negative types of claims, say in the context of a "video game dying or not". I am not claiming this sort of behaviour from "one side", way more complicated. My main point is there aren't a lot of people who are good faith or legitimately sincerely interested in being accurate with an adequate sort of appreciation and understanding the value and positives in approaching and addressing such questions with the intent of being objective and accurate and trying to collaborate with others to find the most accurate answers, with an understanding that its also not an easy task, given a particular context. Like often in many scientific fields, depending on the context, its less about getting "final answers that are satisfying" but often more about inching closer to affirmations, clues, partial truths, partial answers, more understanding, better accuracy... 

Compared to a lot of people, I do have more genuine interest in being neutral and objective over such things, but to me, it would be too daunting a task to try approach. Like there are some very basic ideas and concepts I know. Games, generally, lose more players with time, but also live service games with regular updates, are a little different. We also have various steam charts, player activity charts, and other such tools that can help give perspective and info. You also can't necessarily look at a single game in a vacuum, because of certain broad variables that may be influencing all games, or large section of games, which can shed light ob the value of success/failure. Also games usually have different update cycles, which can also overlap with those different update cycles, having different competition as far as other games releases, then updates can be of different sizes and costs... which can be important because you might have an update that isn't attracting that much people, but if it was cheaper because more money is being spent on the next update... or their was internal knowledge that the update was going to be received that way, but for reasons... 

Like their is so much complexity and stuff to consider... I personally often just look at other sources to see how Warframe seems to be doing relatively. I acknowledge I have a preference which may cause a type of bias, in that, I would rather Warframe, in theory, be doing well, because I prefer the game to be around in 2 years, than not be around. However, thats also somewhat balanced by enjoying the game as it is. I want the game to be around in 2 years to be good... I don't just blindly want it to be around in 2 years and not good. Plus also there are a lot of video games. My sense of self isn't wrapped around Warframes success or failure. 

TL;DR. Some people weaponise and manipulate numbers and data points to make themselves feel better, sometimes this is done subconsciously. 

2. Game numbers often fluctuate, often in a downward pattern, especially over long periods of time, but also not always, again it depends, there are lots of variables, and not all of them are as significant as others, necessarily, but they can add up. Which can sometimes frustrate people, who like clean, direct, simple, easy conclusive answers, but... Likewise, player behaviour can also be complex. I use to play Monster Hunter World a lot... more than Warframe. I have friends that still do occasionally. One day, I just dropped it. Not for any negative reason, or consciously... It wasn't because I was frustrated, or angry at it, or a decision Capcom made. I still love that game, and consider it amazing and am awaiting a sequel (Rise was good too)... but I probably won't ever play it again. Its not really an ongoing live service game either, it had its final update many many years ago, its not intended to be a 1:1 comparison, but my main point is, a lot of people, I would argue most people, drop games, not because of any hard negative reasons, but usually due to reasons, like naturally moving on, being busy, the game running its course, general apathy, finding a game they are having more fun with, or they got a bit bored, game ran out of updates and combinations of all that. 

However a lot of people, especially those that may have stronger feelings or reasons for something, aren't always good at considering that. To demonstrate this, Forums/Websites often frequently have players who leave parting shots towards games, because their negativity built up to the point of being hostile. They take it way more personally than most, and it almost sounds like they are breaking up with a lover than just quitting a game. They talk about the game and Developers spitting at them, slapping them across the face, disrespecting them, abusing them... but now good riddance, they can leave this game, and let it die, because its not even that good a game, and deserves to die... I don't judge those players or exits (well I do think they are a bit overdramatic)... but I just wonder why they let the situation with a game get so bad to get to that point? Well, thats complicated too, games can be addictive, especially the type that ask to invest heavily with time aka grinding, farming, and financially as well, with real life currencies... sunk-cost fallacy yadda yadda. However its really important to note, that those players are probably... (based on my current understanding) a minority, just a loud minority. As in most people don't make such exits or declarations when they leave most games. Its important to note this, because if we think that such behaviour is normal or broad... or even just larger than it actually is, we can start to think that most people leave games for negative reasons, or reasons due to the game itself, and not a whole lot of more complicated, broad, vague interlinking reasons. That are overall more neutral. Reasons like "I just got busy with work or a different hobby, or I started playing a different game more, I planned to come back with an update but forgot, I am planning on coming back, but maybe in 6 months or whenever XYZ is Primed" and there is just overall less of a connection and relationship from the game itself and players, its other variables and factors that are the source and those can be harder to account for by numbers. 

TL;DR: Drop offs, fluctuations, are broadly speaking quite common, and sometimes they have pretty identifiable reasons, which can be obvious (increase around a new update), but drop offs also happen for harder to identify reasons, that have less to do with negativity and can often involve apathy, and reasons also not exclusive to any single game either.

[0_The_F00l]

There are more factors to consider here which has missed out, I am not sure if OP has taken any course in statistics.

Sure what has been highlighted could be a potential reason but doea not cover all aspects.

Firstly we are talking about a game , so it's audience is gamers and it's competition is other games. Gamers have limited time to play and competition keeps getting added over time. So you need to factor the external factors in making any assumptions.

Does the drop coincide with any major seasonal changes ? Were there new releases of games ? Were they of a nature similar to warframe ? What about the non pc section of the community ? How many gamers were new ? How many were returning ? 

These are things that need to be accounted if you want to make any accurate guess. 

[PollexMessier]

2 hours ago, L3512 said:

Not sure why you seem to think this as info is literally dated.

https://steamdb.info/app/230410/charts/?__cf_chl_rt_tk=.oqD2W0NgVsWJ2D4Loo2JPU7lMSXJqlLsYZ1Z8q_5K4-1685159191-0-gaNycGzNC_s

Ah thank you, this was a sourcing error on my part is seems. I was using this:
https://steamcharts.com/app/230410#All

Don't know why it's off by a month on that site.

[Dioxety]

Warframe is doing fine and not dying anytime soon. However Warframe is lacking engaging and endgame content. We used to have long Void Tower runs and trials to fill that gap. 

It doesn’t take long for everything to just die in one shot with any gear. AOE, Kuva/Tenet Weapons, Incarnon just obliterates everything. There isn’t really any combat or mechanics that gets my brain excited anymore.

I still enjoy coming back to play the story and going through the new content but It’s more going through the motions and the reward as the excitement rather then gameplay. 
 

Unfortunately balance is so far gone that DE doesn’t even really know how to solve it. Which is why a lot of recent gameplay forces you out of your Warframe to prevent steamrolling. Operator, Drifter, Necramechs, Khal, Duviri, now WF1999.

 

im sure many veterans feel the same, sitting on a pile of maxed out gear with nothing to really keep them engaged after getting all the mastery.

Edited December 2, 2023 by Dioxety

[kamisama85]

Ah the mandatory quarterly doom & gloom thread coming in before the end of the year again I see.

Warframe has to end one day eventually. But is it really worth worrying about what a very slow natural decline should mean?
New games come out all year round, people's interests change, their available time to play changes, commitments, emergencies, all that stuff and life happens to players. They can't stick around simultaneously forever without skipping a beat.

The only time you should be worried is if there is a sharp and unrecoverable decline occurring. A literal hemorrhaging of players. OP it sounds to me like you're trying convince everyone and yourself that this is what's happening right now and you feel obligated to pull the fire alarm again like the guy in the previous quarter, and the quarter before that, all the way back to that first guy a week into beta who thought this game was gonna die after he broke his first corpus ship window.

Nope, still here and not actually dying.
If you're worried that your time invested now is going to be kaput in 10 years, well just quit now and save yourself the grief I guess? 

[quxier]

3 hours ago, PollexMessier said:

 

So what happened? Well what happened in 2019 is pretty obvious if you look at when the dropoff started to happen. There were a lot of solid updates that year, but 3 stand out as pretty controversial. Nightwave, Old Blood, and Empyrian. If you pay attention to release dates tho Old Blood happened in the middle of the drop off, and Emperian on the tail end of it. So, TLDR, this was mostly Nightwave's fault. Turns out people don't like fomo and time gates, who would have guessed? DE has shockingly not figured this out yet despite how blatantly huge of a disaster that decision was for the game. Old Blood may have contributed with it's horrendous multi layered rng BS. But TBH, it wasn't that bad, and DE fixed it's problems rather quickly (for them). And despite how hard Emperian bombed, it actually didn't hit the player count all that hard, at worst it just solidified the disdain of the people that had dropped off from the previous two. Nightwave is certainly much less bad than it used to be, and getting better every... season? But the things that make it problematic are baked into the very core of it, and DE keeps proving they haven't learned from what really made that one a disaster.

You are taking that in vacuum. During that time there we had barely any content not related to RJ. We got few frames which are/were bad, imho (or at least some part of it). It was covid time (work from home). They pick RJ updates which weren't the best thing to do, imho.

3 hours ago, PollexMessier said:

 

Peaks have continued to decline dramatically since then. I'd say Angels of the Zariman was a solid update but it barely even shows up on the map, I think this could largely be because of the eximus overhaul it came with. But still it feels like player numbers were well below what would be expected for an update like that. Then Veil breaker happened which, well that one speaks for itself I think. A huge plateau flowed it until we get another peak with Duviri. But despite it being one of the best updates the game's ever gotten in my opinion (even despite Circuit's weekly bs), It still hit lower than TNW. It was also Preceded by the Aoe nerf tho which certainly didn't go over well with a large chunk of players. I'd say multiple small factors all tangled together are likely at play with the apparent decline in max player numbers over time. Compared to the much more obvious cause of 2019's drop of minimum players.

Zariman update weren't the worse but it had some issues as well. Like quest being bad. Eximus rework played some role as well, as noted.

There were some bad stuff like timegates you mentions but some other stuff like Styanax' nerf and no fix.

4 hours ago, PollexMessier said:

 

Between circuit's weekly fomo trash tarnishing Duviri, the absolute disaster that was the Hierloom incident, and the ticking time bomb that is the upcoming addition to arcon shards; I have a feeling whispers in the wall is going to continue the trend of declining peaks. Still, the floor hasn't dropped since 2019. So DE hasn't pissed people off enough for another mass exodus of their most loyal players since then... that we've seen. Not enough time's passed yet to see any downward trend heirloom might have kicked off, or lack their of. I suspect it won't be pretty tho if I'm right about how hard regal aya hit the player base.

I think people that has stayed are either used to play WF so they will play more (e.g. me) or just used to such bad tactics so they don't care. Like in second case, people are not so bad about Circuit timegates, Archons tiny drops + timegates etc. They don't even care if frame is good, as in mechanic not simply damage. Dagath has no near complains as it should have. Some people that stayed are ok with lower standards.

[Tiltskillet]

These topics are interesting in that there are so many different perspectives on what has caused declines.  I feel like they're largely  an outlet for people to complain about whatever features or directions they dislike, and use playercounts as a form of self-validation.  Personally I trace all the game's problems, population or otherwise, to Banshee's missing fourth ability and a distinct lack of Veldt Prime.

Other than that I'll note that it's hardly unusual for games to become less popular 5 years or a decade in; the lucky few that even make it that long.

[trst]

I gotta point out the sheer irony of claiming that Nightwave is at all at fault of anything due to it having FOMO and time gates. When it was literally added to replace the greatest source of FOMO and time gates the game ever had: Alerts.

Nightwave is the direct result of players complaining about that system and Nightwave is free of all the issues alerts had. That is unless you somehow equate the FOMO of randomly occurring, sometimes weeks apart, couple hour time windows with the several month long time window of each NW season.

 

As for the actual topic it's also a consideration as to what other games released in 2019. Things like Apex Legends, Anthem, Borderlands 3, a Destiny expansion, and then some all released in 2019. Meanwhile WF, unlike most games like it, don't require players to constantly engage with it and requires far less investment to catch up with years worth of content considering how relatively little effort it takes to finish entire updates.

Ultimately it's very easy for players to get their attention pulled away from Warframe. Especially with how the game doesn't punish players for taking time away and the usual lack of need to actually catch up to engage with a new update/event.

And in the end the player count data we have access to clearly doesn't matter anyways. With cross save finally around the corner and a mobile release of the game DE and their owners aren't concerned for the game's future with that amount of investment.

[Myscho]

Fluctuating players count between updates is nothing new in Warframe, been like this for years

[Dunkelheit]

1.  the game is not dieing. I hear this for 10 years now and they still have constant players numbers.

2. The game lives without endgame content (raids?) for years and the games is still fine for a reason. Warframe scratches the collectors itch. Like every other game that is not driven by psychological tricks like FOMO, people stop playing at some point. But the gameplay is engaging and fun enough to come back after a while. Collecting things is fun as well for a lot of people. Same goes for trying out new weapons, builds. Maybe I am just talking for me, but Incarnon alone gave me at least 6 months to collect and build them.

3. The game is becoming better and better now that Pable and Reb are at the helm. All new Warframes have interesting abilities that synergize with each other. Reworks like Hydroid are amazing, Duviri was so much fun and Circuit is an interesting take when you are a Veteran. Zariman was one of my favorite expansions and Duviri is close after. Yeah, at a point it becomes boring to play, but even WoW became boring at a point.

4. Games do not constantly need to grow, it is enough when they retain constant numbers. Especially if the game is so good that people come back again and again like in Warframe.

5. After playing for 10 years, I am still very excited about the new big content drop coming in December, I can't wait actually

 

 

[TARINunit9]

6 hours ago, PollexMessier said:

So, TLDR, this was mostly Nightwave's fault. Turns out people don't like fomo and time gates, who would have guessed?

Yeah I'm gunna say it right now, blaming the decline on Nightwave is BS. Nightwave has done more to keep me in the game than any other update or factor, by a country mile. The FOMO is virtually nonexistent and the timegates are some of the most generous you could possibly ask for

No, you know what happened in 2019? 2019 had two important things going on:

1) It was a KILLER year for games. Massive flood of hotly-anticipated releases. Sekiro, Fire Emblem Three Houses, Pokemon Gen 8 (as much as I'm loathe to admit it), REmake 2, Devil May Cry 5, Metro Exodus, Astral Chain, Mechwarrior 5, Death Stranding, Borderlands 3, Mario Maker 2, Bloodstained Ritual of the Night, and Outer Worlds/Wilds (I forget which, maybe both?). Oh you want more? How about Apex Mother Flipping Legends. Yeah the one game EA can point to as a reason for them to still exist. Warframe had some stiff competition that year

2) The Yin to the Yang, it was also a year of really controversial live-service releases. Anthem is the most obvious target, Crackdown 3 is in there, and the flop of Wolfenstein Youngblood, let's not forget the one-two sucker punches of Tom Clancy's Division and Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon Breakpoint. New and returning players definitely soured on live services that year. Seeing Warframe as another live service, even with the promise it was free, wasn't turning heads like it used to

[BansheeAndZephyrMarried]

I'd say the numbers are back to normal- last few years had inflated numbers across the gaming industry as a whole from covid popularizing remote work. People are rightfully memeing on Destiny's 45% revenue miss but at the time, following Lightfall's preorder numbers, such an optimistic projection probably felt plausible. 

People having to go back to regular schedule and office, the unsustainable inflation, and a lot of good games releasing this year all combined into a really bad time for online multiplayer games in general. 

It's true Warframe's lategame is lacking and DE themselves have admitted veteran players leaving because of the game being too easy is an actual, noticeable problem. But that's been the case for many years by now, this year simply had a lot of particular factors. 

[Loza03]

We don't have 100% accurate player numbers (The playerbase is split three ways on PC, across two Playstations, two Xboxes and one Switch), and the best we have are Steam charts. Even if we assume it's the biggest slice of pie, it's a fraction of a fraction of a fraction - the current players of one part of one platform. And it measures the highest peaks (even if it was only one day, like Tennocon, or bad luck like mass powercuts). So whilst trends can be looked at

Now, you do have a point about general playercount trends, but I think there's a factor you haven't considered. A little game called Destiny 2. Or more accurately, it's terrible launch in 2017 and awful release schedule throughout 2018. And the fact that every 'Influencer' and their mothers were looking for an alternative for a high-fantasy space opera shooter. Which Warframe, especially at the time really was. So a lot of disgruntled Destiny fans flooded to Warframe.

 

Don't get me wrong, DE didn't handle things great, though I mean. Nightwave is probably the most harmless addition? It's ignorable and free, mostly cosmetic stuff to do between major updates. I'd point fingers at Fortuna's bloated release, Kuva Liches being revealed before any actual gameplay was planned and the truly terrible state the incredibly promising Railjack had were far more to blame for any player discontentment than 'Holll up. Detectin' G L A S S rezzonence' or the tank of Saturn Six.

[(PSN)robotwars7]

I think it's not worth worrying about such things, especially since there isn't any data showing all platforms merged together. no doubt such figures will eventually appear, maybe at the end of the year, but the game is doing fine, and activity is going to spike again very soon with Whispers in the Wall, just like during any update.

[Nobodys-Perfect]

12 hours ago, PollexMessier said:

this was mostly Nightwave's fault. Turns out people don't like fomo and time gates, who would have guessed?

I'll go ahead and validate your perspective, when nightwave initially dropped I looked at it, went "This sucks" and quit for 8 series of it.

The reason? I saw it as a trojan horse and that rubbed me the wrong way - Alerts only required you to drop in for a single mission for what you want when they occurred. They were missable, but the pool of alerts always reoccurred in a shorter timeframe. Nightwave requires far more complete time engagement. "Finish the whole thing" alongside the sense that these rewards don't reoccur (at least for a way longer timespan) and also "your creds expire at the end of the season, use em or lose em!" (This paragraph is for context, not to argue with you if you hated alerts. The points regarding that are valid and I respect them. Whether we prefer being whipped or doused in cold water is a taste issue and largely semantic.)

I don't even mind nightwave that much now when I'm playing, which is testament to the diligent work of Epic game's hired psychologists for coming up with an effective and well proportioned sugar coating for dark pattern abuse, and I guess credit to DE for successfully emulating that formula. If I don't feel the manipulation then it's okay right? (Ps: I know saying that is going to set some of you off, I really don't care to argue this point with other players - It's a moral concern I present at face value. We can discuss it, I can perhaps elaborate and clarify, but I'm not going to jump through hoops to justify this one if you dislike it or take issue. Too depressing to engage with. Thanks 😘)

I came back during Angels of the Zariman, and I liked it a lot for many many reasons. adding systems and needling for player retention feels a lot more horrible and shortsighted to me than just adding gameplay content that fits the existing schema of what they already aught to know Warframe players like and engage with.

My stance is "stop experimenting on us" (following the market trends of the game industry) to see what we'll take. (because the market trends of the game industry and what they subject players to right now are abhorrent.) It's jarring, and not difficult to notice what's going on. As soon as the weight of abuse ticks higher than fun value, players leave.

The evil drive of any evolving live service game is to slowly replace it's audience over time with one which can be more easily abused, and is more desensitized to profiteering at their expense. Envelope push people who care about things out, money dumping zombies in. ("I love FOMO, It's the new extra soft gamer drug all the cool kids are doing. The whiplash from the FO makes me feel totally epic when I don't MO!") Of course, indulging in this rots your game and turns it into something dystopian, cynical, and not worth being proud of. Like any EA title. Profitable? Certainly, but reviled for obvious reasons.  

The only real meaningful force against this kind of entropy is hoping DE's artistic pride and vision triumphs over their market callousness. Players are just along for the ride until they decide to go.

I missed railjack and the lead up to it and it dropping and being wrangled into a playable state. I think any player loss from that is likely the result of it taking a huge chunk of development time, effort, and being a difficult project to the extent focus on it allowed the game's player ecosystem to wither. Fwiw I think the end result is "cool" but also another content island that must be difficult to effectively capitalize on for anything. I consider this permissible enough though, as it didn't sink the company and was more of a "We're making something for our ourselves to prove we can." I wasn't there so I won't tell you to take much stock in my opinion.

It's important to highlight the distinction of player dropoff from getting bored, versus dropoff from taking issue. There's not actually a concrete way to isolate this in the statistics. (So I'm inclined to say it's a pain to use in an argument and why I wouldn't bother.)  I'm an example of someone who dropped off from taking issue, but I think the "just getting bored" types are the majority. I don't think DE have had any additions that shoot themselves in the foot so hard they've hemorrhaged more players from that versus typical burnout. (Might be wrong, If you're a historian or statistician feel free to confirm/deny this)

Primary point I wanted to make through this diatribe: The factors causing player loss mingle together and you probably have to ask the players themselves, en masse, to know for sure what influenced them to go.

Edited December 2, 2023 by Nobodys-Perfect

[SneakyErvin]

11 hours ago, PollexMessier said:

So, TLDR, this was mostly Nightwave's fault.

And with that part it is pointless to read the rest of what you think about WF numbers. Why? Because of the following.

Wolf of Saturn Six released Feb 27 in 2019. And is followed by a huge increase in player activity during March i.e the month that comes after February (the month where NW isnt released yet), and the numbers stay higher than those of Feb all through the NW i.e 3 weeks into May. And when we look at the others, like Glassmaker, it is the same pattern.

And all the releases, those you claim as "controversial" follows the same player increase percentages as all other updates in the game after a "dryspell", which is in the 30%+ range, with pre-2018 having much larger increases, but at that point the game was also still growing.

The increase cannot be seen with Empyrean, but anyone with a lick of sense knows why that is. Since The Old Blood released right at the switch between Oct/Nov i.e the 31st of Oct, so people never had the time to drop due to a dryspell before Empyrean was released on Dec 12. So Empyrean only looks like it attracted a small amount of players.

However, Empyrean was not very popular, or hes less replay value/longevity than other updates, since january 2020 started with a steep drop in player activity. However the improvements to RJ later that year showed people were willing to come back to it.

Claiming 2019 numbers were due to NW and making up it was with FOMO ties is just ridiculous when the numbers state the very opposite and the updates follow the same patterns as other releases. The numbers during 2019 simply comes from fewer releases with replay value or "endgame" impact. And those that did come with replay value and "endgame" impact, well they were released back-to-back at the end of the year.