111 runs of Exploiter Orb

[Danielw8]

And still missing cold ephemera .. i will update when i finally can get it

111 runs means: 22~23hours doing exploiter, without counting thermia farm, without counting glitched runs where i needed alt f4.

Edit: 

I got the ephemera at 170runs

[(PSN)Mofojokers]

Rng can be a fickle mistress and we really need a way to bypass rng abit. Alot of games use a counter, after so many runs x item chance increases for you as you do not have it.

[Sevek7]

Heh yup. It took me somewhere around 100 runs to get both ephemeras. At the time, I remember DE saying that ephemeras were the ultimate reward for "dedicated players who could overcome a real challenge." I thought this meant something difficult to accomplish in-game, rather than the difficulty of remaining awake during an epic grind. I really thought of myself as a dedicated player who was looking for something really challenging out of this game, so I farmed like crazy. In the end, I finally got them both, and wore them with pride.

Since then, ephemeras have also been given out for much shorter grinds, or watching streams, or just plain buying with money. I shouldn't really complain, I didn't really expect that DE's original idea for ephemera acquisition would remain, but nevertheless I was disappointed. Nowadays I don't wear ephemeras on my frames at all, and definitely feel like I wasted my time farming those original ones. 

I suspect you'll come to regret spending your time on this too, if I could trade them to you I would do so in a heartbeat! Good luck and may you get lucky within the next few runs!

[Aldain]

...Would this be a bad time to say I actually got mine on my very first run of it but have zero desire to craft it because of 20k cryotic and need to do arbitrations?

[Danielw8]

16 minutes ago, Sevek7 said:

Heh yup. It took me somewhere around 100 runs to get both ephemeras. At the time, I remember DE saying that ephemeras were the ultimate reward for "dedicated players who could overcome a real challenge." I thought this meant something difficult to accomplish in-game, rather than the difficulty of remaining awake during an epic grind. I really thought of myself as a dedicated player who was looking for something really challenging out of this game, so I farmed like crazy. In the end, I finally got them both, and wore them with pride.

Since then, ephemeras have also been given out for much shorter grinds, or watching streams, or just plain buying with money. I shouldn't really complain, I didn't really expect that DE's original idea for ephemera acquisition would remain, but nevertheless I was disappointed. Nowadays I don't wear ephemeras on my frames at all, and definitely feel like I wasted my time farming those original ones. 

I suspect you'll come to regret spending your time on this too, if I could trade them to you I would do so in a heartbeat! Good luck and may you get lucky within the next few runs!

I mean for example to get a maxed energize (r10) took me something like 250~300hydro cap, and to do it in a efficient way i needed to farm focus, build warframes, learn how to hunt, but at the end was worth, super worth. Same with other arcanes. In this case ... you know its pretty much garbage, and most of the hard grind in this game feels like that (necramech mods, another example i have now in my head).This is why people say "i feel im wasting my time" When the grind is not worth to grind, people quit i guess. I still doing it, because to be honest i get some fun doing exploiter, but at this point its just a retarded grind for no reason, since i have everything in warframe or almost everything. And the joke about this is: when you finally get the rewards, you wasted so much time solo doing one mission, there come something ultra easy and people get your reward in 30min of gameplay: Scarlet spear or deimos

[(PSN)Lollybomb]

20 minutes ago, Sevek7 said:

Heh yup. It took me somewhere around 100 runs to get both ephemeras. At the time, I remember DE saying that ephemeras were the ultimate reward for "dedicated players who could overcome a real challenge." I thought this meant something difficult to accomplish in-game, rather than the difficulty of remaining awake during an epic grind. I really thought of myself as a dedicated player who was looking for something really challenging out of this game, so I farmed like crazy. In the end, I finally got them both, and wore them with pride.

Yep.  A reward tied to RNG cannot be considered a reward for "dedication" or overcoming a "real challenge" since it's entirely possible for someone to get it on their first try, as well as someone not getting it after 10,000 tries.

Worse, because of how everything in Warframe is structured, most of these ephemera can be acquired by having other people do all the work.  So what does it say about how good or dedicated someone is if they're wearing one of these ephemera?  Basically nothing.  Right place, right time.  Nothing more.

[Phatose]

Drop tables seem to indicate at 5% drop chance for that ephemera (10% of getting an ephemera , 50% of it being that one).  That means a 95% chance of not getting it per run.  X^Y, .95 ^ 111 = .0033.  So, 3 in 1000 chance of that happening.  Bad luck for sure, but not completely outside the range of possibility. 

[Sintag]

Well, you'll never be hurting for Vox Solaris standing, ever again.  But also, ouch.  Good luck in trying again.

[(PSN)Madurai-Prime]

Sell some Vox Solaris arcanes in the mean time. The plat will make you feel better. 

[taiiat]

one of those Cosmetics that exists to give Players a reason to keep playing after most of the generally much easier to acquire Gameplay affecting stuff is already had, after all.

[SpringRocker]

2 hours ago, Danielw8 said:

This is why people say "i feel im wasting my time" When the grind is not worth to grind, people quit i guess.

I feel that it's more along the lines of being at a certain point where grinding is the only thing the game still has.

People used to play games because they were fun, not because they feel the need to complete a collection of trophies.

[Mover-NeRo]

Got both Freezing and Shocking in one run.

I think it was when I had something like double booster, one was from event I think and one was from daily rewards. Not sure which one it was tho.

Also it might be just luck.

 

[Enialyx]

An old gambler's trick on bad streaks like this is coming back on another day.

Often works!

[(PSN)Deeceem]

Yeah, it took me 73 runs over 6 months or so and made me despise a boss I initially enjoyed. A buddy of mine is also at 100+ runs by now and still misses the electric one. I wouldn't have too much of an issue with it - or rather I'd understand it more - if it was tradable or on the market - basically if there was another avenue to acquire it via plat/money if I had enough of trying my luck. It also makes little sense to me to put items that aren't buyable behind S#&$ rng since it serves no purpose other than making people despise the content. There's no gain for anyone. Plat isn't traded, money isn't spent, the player just gets frustrated and has no out other than smashing the face against an rng wall.

It generates playtime, I guess?

Good luck!

[Graavarg]

5 hours ago, Danielw8 said:

And still missing cold ephemera .. i will update when i finally can get it

111 runs means: 22~23hours doing exploiter, without counting thermia farm, without counting glitched runs where i needed alt f4.

I did over 100 runs when Exploiter Orb arrived, the last 50 or so just to get Freezing Step (got everything else). Nope, didn't get it. Getting all those Lazulite Toroids was of course a good thing, haven't had to farm toroids for standing since then and still have a bunch left.

I remember that I calculated the chance for this to happen (or rather for a Freezing Step drop to "not happen" in 100 runs), and it was depressingly not as extreme as it felt. Back then I think the drop chance was 3% (6% for an ephemera to drop, 50% that it was Freezing Step), so the chance of not getting it during 100 missions was around 5%. So I gave up (in a black "f*ck this f*cking sh*t"-mode).

Since then I've done 30-40 Exploiter Orbs, with friends, for Nightwave etc. At some point Freezing Step dropped, without me even noticing.

- - -

I personally think that one of the biggest drawbacks of Warframe's drop system is that looking at the law of probability the other way there is a "guarantee" that a certain percentage of players will NOT get stuff, even with an excessive effort. Just using Freezing Step as an example, the expected result (the statistical truth) was that one player in twenty will NOT get a Freezing Step even from 100 Exploiter Orbs (with a 3% drop chance). Or using a more general example, if something has a drop rate of 1%, about a third of the players will NOT get a single drop from 100 missions.

Now, don't get me wrong. Low drop chances are ok, as such. But Warframe should have some sort of backup system in place for those "most unlucky", because that there will be such a group for each and every drop in the game is a stark mathematical truth. I am pretty sure DE is aware of this, since there are some such backdoors to fix being unlucky (like buying stuff for plat, from DE or other players). But Warframe still lacks a general handling of this problem, for most of the rarer drops a certain percentage of the players simply will not get them, even with tens and tens of hours of trying.

In my opinion this is a really bad thing for the game, because it burns players out. There is line when the effort of trying to get something just becomes too insane. Of the few players I know IRL, two have left Warframe as a direct result of this (that is 20% of my own IRL "playerbase"). I almost chucked it in during my own Freezing Step episode (at that point there was additional stress from about 20-30% of the missions failing due to bugs).

The idea that players that have been statistically "lucky" should somehow be able to show off that luck to "unlucky ones" is basically flawed. Even if it is very "human" (to want to lord your luck over the more unlucky ones), it is also indecent (unethical) at it's core, especially in a "coop" game. There is nothing "special" about players having more luck than others, it is just a statistical result. And I think that many players experience this "unfairness" (even if it is 100% fair from a mathematical viewpoint) , when trying and trying and trying and there is absolutely nothing they can do, because a certain amount of players statistically has to belong to a group that will not get the stuff in a hundred or a thousand runs.

What bugs me is that if you just remove the "oh, it's SO exclusive!!!"-factor from the equation there are quite easy ways to stopgap the statistical insanity of "unluck", and allow all players to get something, by making a huge effort to counter unluckiness. Taking Exploiter Orb as an example, a very basic and simple "anti-unluck" fix would have been to include one single guaranteed item from every successful mission ( a "mission medallion" or something), and allowing players to trade a certain number of "medallions" for the drops. This way even those players belonging to the "most unlucky" category (statistically destined to NOT get an ephemera in 200, 500 or 1000 runs) would know that 200 missions would result in 200 medallions and 200 medallions can be traded for a (missing) ephemera. Even if 200 Exploiter Orbs is a fair amount of effort, at least there would be a known endpoint for the farming.

[vegetosayajin]

[(PSN)robotwars7]

that sucks to hear. I don't have Freezing Step either, but I'm not going out of my way for it. a solution to this would be to add the Exploiter's items into Little Duck's shop, but make it cost a fair amount of Lazulite Toroids. that way, you'll either get it by pure luck or you'll eventually have done enough runs to buy it anyway. Little Duck would become more important if she could act as a "failsafe shop" so that people can buy what they need if the RNG gods don't smile upon them. 

without going into a whole "warframe needs to be more like X" ordeal, I do think a shop like what some games have for these things would be nice.

[nslay]

7 hours ago, SpringRocker said:

I feel that it's more along the lines of being at a certain point where grinding is the only thing the game still has.

People used to play games because they were fun, not because they feel the need to complete a collection of trophies.

Pokemon was released in the late 1990s... probably one of the best games ever made (at least the red/yellow/blue verions that I played). Partly revolves around completing a collection of trophies.

[ReddyDisco]

i like exploiter, my endless supply of vox solaris standing

[(XBOX)Kuhl MC]

Gave up on Freezing Step long ago, simply not worth the time investment (unfortunately, this goes for many things in Warframe nowadays, e.g. Necramech mods). The fact, that the last three or four Exploiter runs constantly crashed my Xbox in the final phase and there is still no patch notification regarding this matter also doesn't help the motivation... Maybe offer the Ephemeras for a certain amount of Thermia instead. This would actually motivate me to do Thermal Fissure missions again. I don't have a problem with grind in general, if it means to work towards a final goal, but grinding against (sometimes multiple) RNG walls feels pointless after a while and Warframe had (or still has) more than enough of that already (War parts, PoE commander mods, ESO drops in general, Railjack reactors, Sentient Ephemera, Necramech mods, etc. just to name a few examples). At a certain point, this won't incentivize to try more, but simply leads to not trying at all anymore, the faster the more often this issue occurs.

[AzureTerra]

failed math that would be 333 not the intended 666...

[(PSN)Lollybomb]

Personally I've always been a fan of what you might call "adaptive RNG."  For a given reward the odds of it dropping are X.  X can be as small as you want.  X could even start at exactly 0.  You have no chance of getting the item.  But, each attempt that fails increases the odds by a certain amount, Y.  So the odds of the item dropping are X+(Y*Z) where Z is the number of failed runs before the current.  The great thing about this system is that as long as you keep trying, you are 100% guaranteed to get the item within a certain number of attempts.  Namely ((100-X)/Y)+1.  An item with an initial drop of 1%, and an increase of 0.5% each run will have a 100% chance to drop on your 199th attempt if it never dropped before.  It will likely have dropped before that, but even if it didn't, the worst case scenario is requiring 199 attempts.  On the other hand a fixed 1% drop chance comes out to only about an 87% chance you'll get it in those same 199 runs.

Some people still get to be very lucky and get it quickly, others don't get as lucky, and have to try more, but in the end, it's a thing that everyone can actually get with enough effort.

[SpringRocker]

16 hours ago, nslay said:

Pokemon was released in the late 1990s... probably one of the best games ever made (at least the red/yellow/blue verions that I played). Partly revolves around completing a collection of trophies.

If the story was removed and battles taken out (things like gyms and other people), would it still be fun?

If it was all about spending time in tall grass until you get all Pokemon there, then the next tall grass, and then the next tall grass until you've collected all Pokemon would it still be the same?

Point was "People used to play games because they were fun" . People don't even really play Warframe, they do the same missions over and over trying to get a better drop. What's so engaging about having a button that's basically an auto-kill-all? It's not about playing a game anymore, it's grinding for a collection.

[BahamutKaiser]

I never tried for the ephemera, I was so pissed when I did get it during a Hildryn farm for a squad mate and the game crashed during extraction. Luckily support restored the item. These are almost as bad as Necramech Rare Mods... at least it's only cosmetic...

[Danielw8]

Update: 135 runs still not ephemera, and im out of thermia (event is not active)